Weather forecasting tools can show impacts of global warming, say scientists at Oxford University

The latest findings coincide with the United Nations “AI for Good Summit” in Geneva where Oxford Physics team scientists will lead sessions on how AI and machine learning can do regional forecasting of extreme weather and future climate predictions.

Image source: Palmetto

A study by Oxford Climate physicists has shown how state-of-the-art weather forecasts can be used to show how greenhouse gas emissions affect extreme weather. The study is based on the recent events in the UK and US, where scientists have assessed the impact of global warming at a local scale and found that human activity both worsened specific weather events and made them more likely to occur. The research was led by Professor Myles Allen.

“We have shown for the first time that the same top-quality models used for weather forecasting, which are tested relentlessly every day, can be used to show the impacts of global warming,” said Professor Myles Allen.

"Multi-billion-pound decisions depend on adapting to climate change, so we need the most reliable means possible to inform them – and this is it. Weather forecasters could – and should – both warn people of extreme weather and explain how it is being affected by climate change. It isn’t a simple case of climate change making all-weather worse: some events, like the prolonged winter cold, have become less likely," added Professor Myles Allen.

These are extremely significant findings for UK, US

According to a recent report from the environmental intelligence agency Kisters, in the UK, the cost of dealing with natural disasters caused by extreme weather and climate change could bankrupt the country by the end of the century. In the USA, the cost of dealing with 28 separate weather and climate disasters in 2023 alone topped a record US$90 billion.

Amid the changing weather every year, understanding how climate change and human activity impacts the weather remains an urgent and significant challenge for scientists as it costs many lives and billions of dollars.

Dr Nicholas Leach, who led the U.S. study said, “Climate change and human influence is having a very clear impact on certain extreme weather like storms and heatwaves. Human influence made this 2021 heatwave at least 8 times more likely, and we also found the risk of similar heatwaves occurring is doubling every 20 years at the current rate of global warming."

“Why only use a road atlas when you have a satnav available?. Our climate models are like the old A-to-Z: tried and tested, but they have their limitations, especially when it comes to extreme weather. Using state-of-the-art weather forecast models allows us to quantify how human influence impacts extreme weather, to zoom in on local impacts, and to investigate the processes driving this, giving us greater confidence in our predictions," said Dr Leach.

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