Learn from experience

Pranab Ghosh interviews Sanjay Kumar, fellow, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies.

What could be an ideal educational background for a poll analyst?

There is no formal qualification. One can be from any stream, though a formal education in political science might help. In India, we have excellent poll analysts with formal training in subjects other than political science.

What is the difference between a psephologist and a poll analyst?

I am not sure if there is any difference — both are the same. The one fine line could be that while a poll analyst may avoid making a seat forecast (done by converting vote estimates to seats — in the Parliament or state assemblies — gained by a party) but can analyse the election, it is almost mandatory for the psephologist to make seat forecast.

How scientific is poll analysis?

Over the years, there has been an improvement in the quality of election analysis, but forecasting (number of seats for a party) has not improved. The method of converting vote estimates into seats is relatively easy in states with bi-polar contests, but difficult where there are multi-party contests.

Can poll analysis/psephology be taught?

There is no institution for formal training in poll analysis/psephology. No such course is available in India in any college, university or even a private institution. Poll analysis can (only) be learned by experience.

Author: HT Horizons

Date: 16th Dec., 2009

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