COVID-19 third wave peak expected by September-October: IIT Kanpur Study

The study also says that mostly positivity rate is less than 5% but Kerala, Goa, Sikkim and Meghalaya still have a positivity rate of over 10%.

A study conducted by the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur has that the third wave of Covid-19 is expected by September to October this year.

An IIT Kanpur study done by Professor Rajesh Ranjan and Mahendra Verma, along with their team, said, "There is significant anxiety among policymakers and public about the third wave. For the same, using the SIR model, we have constructed the following three scenarios of a possible third wave using the epidemic parameters of the second wave. We assume that India is fully unlocked on July 15, 2021. Scenario 1 (Back-to-Normal): Third-wave peak in October but a lower peak height than the second wave. Scenario 2 (Normal with virus mutations): The peak could be higher than the second one and may appear early (September). Scenario 3 (Stricter interventions): The peak of the third wave could be delayed until late October with strict social distancing. Here, the peak will be lower than the second wave."

Professor Ranjan and Verma, along with their team at IIT Kanpur, provide daily coronavirus forecasts in India on covid19-forecast.org.

The second wave has waned significantly almost in every state except in some Northeast states (Mizoram, Manipur, Sikkim etc.), according to an assessment from the IIT Kanpur team.

The study also says that mostly positivity rate is less than 5% but Kerala, Goa, Sikkim and Meghalaya still have a positivity rate of over 10%.

"India's average daily case count has reduced significantly. As of 19 June, it is 63,000 compared the peak of about 4 lakhs. Most states have daily Test Positivity Rate(TPR) less than WHO recommended level (5%). However, Kerala, Goa, Sikkim, Meghalaya still have high daily TPR (>10%)," the institute said in a statement.

The country's daily Case Fatality Rate (CFR) has increased recently to 3.5%, but the cumulative CFR of the second wave is comparable to that of the first wave, the study notes.

"At present, the model does not include vaccination, which should decrease the peak significantly. The revised model with vaccination and with more recent data on the same is being worked out," it adds.

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