States with high international migration, water bodies susceptible to COVID: IIT Mandi study

Researchers recommend that in future cases of pandemic outbreaks, travel to and from Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh should be carefully monitored.  

Researchers from the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Mandi have identified the states with a high probability of being the first hotspots for the spread of COVID-19. The researchers reviewed the spread of COVID-19 and past pandemics in India for this study. 

According to the study performed on 640 districts from April 1 to December 25, 2020, the hotspots of the pandemic in India have been states with high international migration and districts located close to large water bodies. 

States such as Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh were the hotspots for the COVID-19 pandemic in India. In almost all of these states, international migration is a significant factor. For this reason, the researchers recommend that in future cases of pandemic outbreaks, travel to and from these states should be carefully monitored.  

Researchers reviewed the past pandemics and found common patterns between the Spanish flu (1918-1919), H1N1 (2014-2015), swine flu (2009- 2010) and COVID-19 (2019-2021) outbreaks. It shows water bodies have a strong influence on a region’s microclimate in terms of temperature and humidity, contributing significantly to regional climate change. It is commonly referred to as the lake effect.  

The research was led by Sarita Azad, associate professor, School of Basic Science, IIT Mandi, and co-authored by Neeraj Poonia, research scholar, IIT Mandi. The findings of the research have been published in the journal ‘Current Science’. 

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