Fourth Covid wave likely to hit India in June: IIT Kanpur study

According to researchers, the fourth wave of COVID will start from June 22, 2022, reaching its peak on August 23, 2022, and end on October 24, 2022.

A modelling study by Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur researchers has suggested that the fourth COVID wave in India may start around June 22 and peak from mid to late August.  In the current study, the researchers applied the statistical methodology to Covid-19 data from India to forecast the occurrence of the fourth wave in the country. “This methodology can also be used to forecast the fourth and other waves in other countries also,” they said. 

The study, led by Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar, and Shalabh from the Department of Mathematics and Statistics, revealed that the possible new wave will last for four months. It shows that the severity of the new wave will depend on the emergence of a possible new COVID variant and vaccination status across the country. 

“The data indicates that the fourth wave will arrive after 936 days from the initial data availability date, which is January 30, 2020. Therefore, the fourth wave starts from June 22, 2022, reaching its peak on August 23, 2022, and ends on October 24, 2022,” the authors said. They said the impact will depend on various factors such as the variant’s infectibility, fatality, etc. Besides, the effect of vaccinations — first, second or booster dosage may also play a significant role on the possibility of infection, degree of infection and various issues related to the fourth wave. 

Next strain could be more contagious: WHO

World Health Organization (WHO) officials had recently warned that Omicron may not be the last COVID variant and the next strain could be more contagious.  “The next variant of concern will be more fit, and what we mean by that is it will be more transmissible because it will have to overtake what is currently circulating,” said Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s COVID-19 technical lead. 

The same research team had previously predicted that the third wave of the pandemic in India would peak by February 3, 2022. That research studied the trend of the Omicron-led surge in Covid-19 cases in other countries and predicted that India too will witness a similar trajectory. 

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