Amid COVID-19 surge, IIT-Kanpur researchers prediction of fourth wave may come true

The mathematical study ‘Fourth Wave of Covid-19 in India: Statistical Forecasting’, done by IIT-Kanpur researchers including Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subha Sankar Dhar and Shalabh, which was published in Medrxiv, on February 24, 2022, forecasted that the fourth wave in India is likely to set in on June 22, 2022.

Is COVID-19 fourth wave likely?

Is COVID-19 fourth wave likely? Considering the increase in the number of novel coronavirus cases across the country, reports are claiming that the prediction regarding the fourth wave of COVID-19 by researchers from IIT-Kanpur might come true! The research predicted in February that India will face a fourth COVID-19 wave from June 22, 2022. The COVID index in India has recorded a steady rise of COVID infections across different states including Maharashtra, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. The data is warning towards COVID-19 fourth wave.

Fourth Wave of Covid-19 in India: Statistical Forecasting

It appears that the prediction from IIT-Kanpur researchers was not that off-target. The mathematical study ‘Fourth Wave of Covid-19 in India: Statistical Forecasting’, done by IIT-Kanpur researchers including Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subha Sankar Dhar and Shalabh, which was published in Medrxiv, on February 24, 2022, forecasted that the fourth wave in India is likely to set in on June 22, 2022.

The researchers in their paper in Medrxiv, claimed, “Our study indicates that the fourth wave of Covid-19 in India will arrive after 936 days from the initial data availability date, which is January 30, 2020. Therefore, the fourth wave starts on June 22, 2022, reaching its peak on August 23, 2022, and ends on October 24, 2022. Moreover, the 99 per cent confidence interval for the date, when the curve will reach the peak, is approximately from August 15, 2022, to August 31, 2022.”

The researchers said, “our approach is to use the data observed due to Covid-19 in the earlier waves in any country and train the model over that. Once the model is trained, the same is used to forecast the occurrence of the next wave in other countries. The fundamental assumption in our study is that the behaviour of the SARS virus remains the same all over the world irrespective of country. In other words, our thought process is that if the virus is causing the fourth wave in any country, why it will not cause the same in other countries if the infection started spreading?”

Meanwhile, Public health experts are denying the possibility of India being hit by the fourth wave of COVID-19. 

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