3rd Covid wave may peak in February 2022: IIT Kanpur researchers

Researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur have forecast that a third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, which may be triggered by the new Omicron variant, may peak in India by February 3, 2022.  

“Following the trends around the world, this project report forecasts India’s third wave may start around mid-December and peak in the beginning of February,” said a report published in the online preprint health server MedRxiv.  

The team used a statistical tool called the Gaussian Mixture model to predict the third wave. The research report used the data of the first and second waves in India and the current rise in cases triggered by Omicron in various countries, to predict a possible third wave in the country. 

The researchers said the study “suggests the cases reach peak value after 735 days from our initial observation date, which is January 30, 2020, when India reported its first official case of COVID-19. So, the cases start rising around December 15, 2021, and the peak of the third wave will occur on Thursday, February 3, 2022”. 

The research team, drawn from the department of mathematics and statistics, IIT Kanpur, included Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar and Shalabh. 

The researchers said the key question after the first and second waves of Covid-19 was “will the third wave also arrive and, if yes, then when”. To unravel the puzzle the team used a statistical method based on the fitting of a mixture of Gaussian distributions. 

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