Predicted Joshimath surface displacement in 2021, claims IIT Ropar

IIT Ropar researchers had carried out the glacial displacement mapping for the 2021 Joshimath flood scenario as early as March 2021. The study was considered to be a hoax and potentially a fear psychosis by many experts in the area.  

Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Ropar in Punjab claimed that its researchers had in 2021 predicted a large-scale surface displacement in Joshimath, Uttarakhand, in a span of two years.  

A release issued by the institute stated, “A team of researchers led by Reet Kamal Tiwari, assistant professor in the Department of Civil Engineering at IIT Ropar, had carried out the glacial displacement mapping for the 2021 Joshimath flood scenario as early as March 2021.” 

He said, “During the study, Tiwari and his then PhD student Akshar Tripathi had predicted a large-scale surface displacement to come up in a span of two years for Joshimath town.” 

“They had used Persistent Scatterer SAR Interferometry (PSInSAR) technique using Sentinel-1 satellite data for the study. The predictions ranged between 7.5 cm and 10 cm displacement for buildings in Joshimath city which is enough to cause large-scale cracks in buildings, a scenario which is now very much evident in the last few days,” the institute stated. 

The study was presented in a conference held in Lucknow on April 16, 2021, for which Tripathi was awarded the 'Best Paper Award'. “However, the study was considered to be a hoax and potentially a fear psychosis by many experts in the area,” it said. 

Set up inter-IIT institute of excellence on Himalayan disasters: IIT Ropar prof 

Owing to what Joshimath town is facing now and the prediction holding to be true, Tiwari has reiterated his long-term demand that setting up an inter-IIT institute of excellence on Himalayan disasters is the need of the hour. 

According to the release, Tiwari also calls it a first of its kind successful inter-institutional collaboration on Himalayan disasters. Akshar Tripathi has seconded the demand for setting up the inter-disciplinary and inter-IIT institution and called the Himalayas to be “our physical and climatic saviours that need to be preserved and protected”. 

The release said both Tiwari and Tripathi have also demanded that any such studies that predict disasters should be taken seriously so that proper mitigation measures could be taken well in advance to save life and property. 

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